The Fertility Collapse — Who Will Disappear?
Fertility rate vs GDP per capita · 194 nations · 1900–2050
South Korea has a fertility rate of 0.72 — the lowest ever recorded for any country. Japan, Italy, Spain, and Germany are all far below the replacement level of 2.1. Meanwhile, sub-Saharan Africa remains above 4.
Explore the great demographic divergence
Open in The Civilisation Lab →Free · No sign-up required · 194 nations · 1900–2050
The chart tells a striking story: as countries get richer, they have fewer children. This relationship is among the strongest and most consistent in all of development economics.
In 1900, almost every country had fertility rates above 4. The global average was around 5. By 2023, the world average has fallen to 2.3 — and is still falling.
The divergence is dramatic. Niger and Mali remain above 6 children per woman. South Korea and China are below 1.5. These two worlds will collide in the coming decades through migration, aging, and geopolitical realignment.
Europe and East Asia face a structural crisis: too few young people to support growing elderly populations, too little immigration to compensate, and no cultural template for sustained very-low fertility.
The 2050 projections show the divergence continuing. Africa's population will nearly double. Europe and Japan will shrink without migration. India will remain relatively young. These demographic forces will shape the 21st century more than almost any policy choice.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why has South Korea's fertility rate collapsed so dramatically?
A combination of extreme housing costs in Seoul, intense educational pressure, long working hours, and shifting gender expectations has created conditions where young Koreans simply cannot afford — financially or psychologically — to have children.
Which regions still have high fertility?
Sub-Saharan Africa leads globally, with Niger, Mali, and Chad above 6 children per woman. Parts of the Middle East and South Asia also remain above replacement, though falling fast.
What does below-replacement fertility mean long-term?
Without immigration, countries below 2.1 children per woman will eventually see their populations shrink. Japan has already begun declining. South Korea, if current rates persist, faces a population halving within 50 years.
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